Mobile Voters: Patterns of Electoral Volatility in Slovakia
No.2(2024)
Oľga Gyárfášová
Roman Hlatky
Martin Slosiarik
Electoral volatility is a perennial feature of Slovak general elections. Furthermore, volatility has increased over time, suggesting party system stabilization is unlikely. As the vicious cycle of new party emergence continues, high volatility complicates the attribution of responsibility, and thus accountability. The 2023 early general election found Slovakia in a very precarious political and social situation – trust in political institutions was historically low and public sentiment about future prospects was pessimistic. Focusing on this election, and using aggregate election results as well as exit poll data, this study analyses: (1) trends in volatility; (2) dynamics of volatility within and between two major political blocs; (3) individual vote switching between consecutive elections; (4) the vote choice of remobilized former non-voters; and (5) the motivations that underpin vote switching. The findings indicate that although some voters have made ideological commitments to certain political parties and are therefore loyal between elections, large parts of the electorate remain ‘floating voters’, dissatisfied with political parties generally. As such, volatility is at an all time high and may increase in future elections.
Slovakia; voting; elections; volatility; aggregate volatility; individual volatility; intra-bloc volatility; inter-bloc volatility; polarization
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